Incerto
Incerto is a five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that explores the nature of uncertainty, probability, risk, and human behavior in complex systems. Blending philosophy, economics, statistics, and personal reflection, the series critiques our tendency to underestimate randomness and overestimate predictability. It begins with Fooled by Randomness, which examines how luck influences success, followed by The Black Swan, which highlights the impact of rare, unpredictable events. The Bed of Procrustes offers aphoristic wisdom, while Antifragile introduces systems that thrive on volatility. The series concludes with Skin in the Game, emphasizing accountability and real-world consequences in decision-making.
The Black Swan explores the profound impact of rare, unpredictable events—what Taleb calls “Black Swans”—that lie outside normal expectations but have massive consequences. The book challenges traditional forecasting and risk models, arguing that humans consistently underestimate uncertainty. Taleb illustrates how randomness and surprise shape history, from financial markets to scientific breakthroughs, and advocates for antifragility—systems that benefit from disorder. Combining philosophy, probability theory, and anecdotal insight, The Black Swan is a provocative critique of modern thinking and a call to embrace humility in the face of complexity. It’s a transformative read for anyone making decisions in uncertain environments.